How Many Copies Will WotLK Sell, and How Fast?

There's quite a bit of talk around the industry, looking at not only how many copies Blizzard can sell of Wrath of the Lich King, but how fast! Gamasutra has quotes from a Janco Partners analyst.

The analyst is also "impressed" at the fact that World of Warcraft 's subscriber base has grown to 11 million even amid economic anxieties and two recent major releases, Age of Conan and Warhammer Online , neither of which have appeared to slow the game's momentum.

Based on its existing subscriber base, says Hickey, "We expect the upcoming release of WoW ’s expansion pack... would yield a sell-through of roughly 5 million units in the first month."

Have you pre-ordered yet? Or will you wait to order the expansion?

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Preordered
# Nov 11 2008 at 10:08 AM Rating: Decent
Yep, Preordered also. FedEx will be delivering it to my office, so while I'm working on project invoicing, I'll also be loading it on my laptop sitting on the floor beside me desk. I may not even wait till I get home to try it out. I'm picturing a 5pm call home to sound a lot like "Traffic is a real killer tonight Hon, must be a bad accident on the expressway or something, I should be home in another hour or so"
5 Million is a good number for 1st week sales
# Nov 11 2008 at 5:51 AM Rating: Decent
I suspect that the 5 mill is a bit low for a month's sales, 11 million subscribers of which 30% preorder and 20% plan on getting it in the first week that it hits the shelves 5 million in the first week is more likely.

But I'm just an old man and not a high priced analyst.


Resistance Is Irrelevant
# Nov 10 2008 at 4:18 AM Rating: Decent
I didn't pre-order, but I'll buy it at retail, full price most likely, as soon as I can get it. I suspect a whole lotta other folks will do the same. I've tried a bunch of other MMORPG's, and found much to like in them - whereas WoW becomes such a relentless grind at the level cap that I haven't played in ages. But WoW's market saturation is just so huge - nearly every member of my family, for three generations, have played WoW - and not any other online games. With new quests, new levels, and new lands to explore, they'll get us all back, at least for awhile. All those boxes will sell, and the already record-breaking subscription numbers will grow. I would have no part if I didn't respect Blizzard, and expect them to deliver another fun, addictive, polished expansion to an already amazing game. You WILL be assimilated, too.
Pfft... Analysts
# Nov 09 2008 at 8:32 PM Rating: Decent
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61 posts
Seriously, someone paid an analyst to figure this out?

I predict that WOTLK will sell buttloads. Can I have 100k a year and a corner office now?
Yay!
# Nov 09 2008 at 9:18 AM Rating: Decent
I pre-ordered mine nearly a year ago during the summer soon as I heard about it I through 5 dollars down and was set to go. Funny thing is when I heard about it I knew it was going to come out sometime in November, I told myself to the point I wouldn't get my hopes up if they delayed it and while they kept the release date underwraps. But I already planned on taking Thursday off because of it, not to mention my manager even said he was taking the next 2 days off. Oh by the way I work at gamestop! :O Discount byatches!
waiting till the dust settles
# Nov 08 2008 at 3:03 PM Rating: Good
45 posts
I'm excited about the expansion, but I've no desire to have it on launch day. In fact, I'll probably avoid WOW all together for most of next week. The servers will be just too crowded and I'm sure there will be plenty of bugs to work out. I'll own WotLK by the end of the year to be sure. By then there will be some lvl 80 guildies to help me with my quests. ;)
only 5 million?
# Nov 08 2008 at 2:34 PM Rating: Excellent
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1,260 posts
Quote:
Based on its existing subscriber base, says Hickey, "We expect the upcoming release of WoW ’s expansion pack... would yield a sell-through of roughly 5 million units in the first month."


That's a little conservative considering that TBC did 4 million in its first week. At the time I think WoW only had 6 million subscribers, so if we see the same trend hold this time we should see closer to 8-9 million in the first month, with most of those in the first week.
only 5 million?
# Nov 09 2008 at 4:17 AM Rating: Excellent
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1,154 posts
SirJac wrote:
That's a little conservative considering that TBC did 4 million in its first week. At the time I think WoW only had 6 million subscribers, so if we see the same trend hold this time we should see closer to 8-9 million in the first month, with most of those in the first week.


BC did 2.4 the first week, and 3.5 the first month....
I preordered
# Nov 08 2008 at 11:25 AM Rating: Good
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207 posts
I pre-ordered mine about two days after they announced the release date to be Nov.13th. I walked over to my local Gamestop and pre-ordered it there, I was lucky number 130-something.

They're having a midnight release on the 12th (err, the first seconds of the 13th I guess) so I'll probably be hanging out there just so I can be certain to get my copy.

If it turns out to be anything like the PS3 or XBOX 360 releases... I'm bringin' nunchacku.
I preordered
# Nov 08 2008 at 1:02 PM Rating: Decent
Same here. The day they announced the "official" release date was the day I walked into Gamestop and plunked my money down for my copy. I will also be there at 12AM for the release. Barring any crazy patch issues on installation...I 'hope' to be online within 30-40 min after I walk out of Gamestop. :)

I'm bringing Bruce Campbell along...he's bringing his "Boomstick" in case of a riot...hehe
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